The Dollar resumes its ascent with + 0.25% towards 1.1775 / E although the easing of rates is quite comparable on T-Bonds with -3Pts (1.25%) and Bunds (-3Pts to -0.423% ).
The Dollar crumbles by -0.1% against the Yen (whose yield is fixed once and for all at 0.00%) and gains 0.3% against the Swiss Franc at 0.9200%.
The euro experienced some contrasting movements around 2.30pm / 2.45pm before returning to its initial levels, pre-publication of the ECB press release.
The Governing Council revised its forward guidance on interest rates, to ‘underline its commitment to maintain an always accommodating monetary policy in order to reach its inflation target’.
The board expects’ key interest rates to remain at their current levels or at lower levels until inflation reaches 2% well before the end of its projection horizon and sustainably for the rest. of the projection horizon ‘.
He believes that progress in core inflation is sufficiently advanced to be compatible with a stabilization of inflation at 2% in the medium term. This may imply a transitional period of inflation moderately above target.
It is far too early to consider a slowdown in PEPP buybacks, this has not even been discussed.
The ECB anticipates a return to the pre-crisis growth rate in Q1 2022 and is betting on inflation below 2% in 2022.
So far, nothing very much in line with expectations … but there would not have been unanimity on the subject of ‘forward guidance’.
Side US figures, the Dollar is not affected by the increase of +51,000 registrations for unemployment benefits, to 419,000, the consensus was expecting stability.
Finally, the number of people receiving regular benefits stands at 3,236,000, a decrease of 29,000 from the revised level for the week of July 5, which is the lowest level since March 2020.
Resales of existing homes rose 1.4% in the United States in June, according to the National Federation of Realtors (NAR). At 5.86 million units at an annualized rate, they nevertheless came out slightly below expectations.
The NAR specifies that the inventory of unsold homes increased by 3.3% to 1.25 million, or 2.6 months of inventory (-18.3% over 1 year), and that the median price of old homes sold has increased by 23.4% year-on-year, the second largest increase since January 1999.
The Conference Board’s leading indicators are up 0.7% instead of the 0.8% targeted by the consensus (it is therefore quite close).